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Writing: A Remedy for the Country

A Remedy for the Country, § 28

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§ 28

Former kings of Sweden, when the Crown had fallen deeply into debt, raised the tale-value in order to facilitate the payments of the Crown to its creditors and of the subjects to the Crown. With what reason, then, in the country’s present state of destitution and when the debt of the Crown is many times larger than it has ever been, does one wish to strive to lower it? Or must such a contrary measure not also have a contrary effect? And how will subjects and Crown be able to survive it?

Fifth, it is harmful for all productive occupations and enterprises.

This affects the soul of a country, and if that is harmed, everything else will be overturned, and public officials will then have to chase the shadow of their original salaries for a good long while.

All productive occupations need loans, and how few are not those producers who can do without them? Some trades require a loan for a longer and others for a shorter term. I have been amazed to hear many well-disposed people assert that no one needs a loan for much longer than one year and am therefore obliged to convince my reader of the opposite.

How many a farmer, working a poor homestead, with many small children and disabled parents, is not obliged to take a loan from his creditor for as long as 12 to 20 years before he is able to acquit himself of his debt? When an impecunious man settles in a wilderness to clear a new farmstead, will he be able to repay his loan in a year? No! scarcely within 12 or 20 years.

Tar-distilling, which is also a rural industry, probably requires loans for six to seven years, shipbuilding for four to five years. If anyone wants to set up factories, a textile mill, dyeworks, tobacco factory or anything else, establish new ironworks, hammer-mills, foundries, manufacturing works or extend, relocate or improve any of the above, it is clear that it will take several years to set them in order with buildings, working materials, labourers, and so on, but far more before they yield so much that, apart from the necessary working capital of the establishment and the owner’s own consumption, they will show a surplus equal to the initial loan, which does not happen to some enterprises for as long as 30 or 40 years.

The situation is the same with commerce.

What will enable a beginner to start up in commerce? Is it not a loan? Will he be able to repay it after the first year? Would he not even under the most favourable conditions need to make use of it for several years in order to use the profit to expand his enterprise? How often does it not happen that he is left with the commodity on his hands for several years? Or how far will one actually get in commerce unless one merchant can give another a loan, for longer or shorter periods?

Everyone is then likely to discover how indispensable loans are in all productive occupations, for longer or shorter periods, and that those who deny that fact have considered neither the multiple loans with which many manufacturing works have been established and are currently being run, nor those that at a future time, with money still scarcer, will be found even more indispensable.

We shall therefore now reflect further on how those who possess sums of banknotes will be able, with a falling exchange rate, to lend them profitably on this basis of conversion or producers be able to make use of their loans.

Let us therefore first suppose that the ordinance issued during this Diet on the recommendation of the Secret Committee regarding the concluding of iron contracts in riksdaler were also to extend to all other loans. What incentive could the lender then have to advance loans, when he knows that within a few years the exchange rate will be 36 mark?

For example: if a young trader should request a loan of 9,000 daler kmt for six years at the usual interest rate and for that reason wished to set his promissory note, according to the current exchange rate, at 514 2/7 riksdaler, would the capitalist then not be a fool if he laid out his money for a paltry interest, when he knows that at the end of six years, at a 36-mark exchange rate, he will be able for the same 9,000 daler to draw 1,000 riksdaler from the Bank?

If the borrower cannot obtain a loan on that basis, however, but is compelled to give the lender his promissory note for 9,000 daler kmt to be paid after six years, together with a lawful interest, it is clear that if he has used it for any purpose at all this year, for instance to purchase bills of exchange, he will not obtain in return for it more than the above-mentioned 514 2/7 riksdaler, nor commodities for more than the same amount of riksdaler. He may make whatever other use he likes of this loan of his, yet 514 2/7 riksdaler is the actual total of his loan. I pass over both the interest and everything else that might in any way obscure the matter. Six years have passed, the interest has been paid, there remains only to repay the principal or to redeem his bond for 9,000 daler, but in the meantime the rate has fallen to 36 mark; he offers his creditor the 514 2/7 riksdaler he has received from him, but the latter will not surrender the promissory note until he receives 1,000 riksdaler, and he is entitled to do so, as he could have insisted on receiving that from the Bank for this banknote capital of his. How commerce and productive occupations can pay their way in such a manner, however, when, in addition to the interest, after the passage of a few years I will have to pay my creditor twice the amount of riksdaler that I can at present receive in exchange for its notes, is impossible to comprehend. If the productive occupations can endure this, then I can certainly endure it. All those productive occupations that do not over a few years, together with the interest and the subsistence of the entrepreneur, make a profit of over 100 per cent must thus perish.

Whatever period one may select, within which the exchange rate is to be 36 mark, the argument is not changed in the least thereby, and if the loan were not made repayable for more than two years but the exchange rate were to move to 36 mark within eight years, the same losses will in the end be incurred in all productive occupations, though over a longer period, which would be too complicated to explain.

Dear reader! such things would necessarily happen if the methods of lowering the exchange rate could be sustained long enough to reach 36 mark, but as I regard that as impossible, as the productive occupations will be compelled to break out one way or another rather than let themselves all be instantly suffocated, such a chaos is likely to arise in the productive occupations and among the possessors of money as no one can foresee and which, at a certain turning-point, could harm both sides far more than the complete collapse of the exchange rate for bills.

 

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